Majority Predicts History Will Judge Bush Harshly

December 13, 2006
Majority Predicts History Will Judge Bush Harshly

Critics of Bush's job performance nearly uniform in giving a negative prognosis for his legacy

by Lydia Saad

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- That ticking sound in the Oval Office may seem louder to President George W. Bush now that there are only two years left on the timer for his presidency. Focusing on his legacy may be more satisfying than dealing with the newly elected Democratic Congress, but a new USA Today/Gallup poll suggests it won't be any easier. According to the Dec. 8-10, 2006 survey, more than half of Americans predict Bush will go down in history as a "below average" or a "poor" president. Only 19% think history will judge him as exemplary (as either "outstanding" or "above average").
The poll asked about the six most recent presidents, from Gerald Ford through George W. Bush.
Fifty-four percent of Americans believe history will consider Bush a below average or poor president. The closest any of the previous five presidents comes to that level is Bill Clinton, with 25% of Americans expecting history to judge him harshly.

Few Americans predict that either Gerald Ford or George H.W. Bush will be remembered as stellar presidents. Their 23% and 32% outstanding/above average scores, respectively, are not that much better than the current president's 19%. But, rather than predicting history to be critical of Ford and the elder Bush as they do for the current Bush, half or more of Americans believe Gerald Ford and George H.W. Bush will be remembered as "average."
George W. Bush's ratings are nearly the inverse of the most lauded of recent presidents -- Ronald Reagan. Nearly two-thirds of Americans believe Reagan will go down in history as an outstanding or above average president; only 10% believe he will be judged harshly.
Legacy vs. Job Approval
According to the new poll, 38% of Americans approve of the job Bush is doing as president while 59% disapprove. Thus, there is nearly a one-to-one correspondence between the percentage disapproving of Bush and the percentage saying he will be remembered as a subpar president (59% vs. 54%, respectively). Two years ago, there was a bigger gap between these figures (49% disapproval vs. 38% subpar rating).
What has happened is that people who disapprove of the job Bush is doing have grown more intense in their feelings. In June 2004, only 62% of those disapproving of his job performance said he would go down in history as subpar. Today that figure is 85%.
Bush's supporters are much less extreme in their predictions about Bush's legacy than his opponents are in theirs. Only 46% of those who approve of Bush's job performance say he will be remembered as a superior president. The rest of his supporters mostly believe he will be remembered as just average.

This indication of the intensity of anti-Bush sentiment is different from the pattern with most other recent presidents. With presidents Ford, Reagan, and the elder Bush, the percentages saying each would be remembered as below average or poor were generally much lower than the percentages disapproving of their job performance at the points in time the two dimensions of opinion were measured. However, like Bush, Clinton's job disapproval and negative legacy ratings were also very similar.
A Troublesome Comparison
Bush's current image ratings appear to be similar to those of former president Richard Nixon who resigned

in disgrace in 1974 over his role in the Watergate affair. Gallup last measured public opinion about Nixon's legacy in June 2004, at which time 14% of Americans thought he would be considered an outstanding or above average president, 34% said he would be considered average, and 51% predicted he would be remembered as below average or poor.
Whether Bush's current legacy ratings would be similar to Nixon's if the two were rated in the same poll is, however, unclear. It is possible that each president's ratings are affected by the context of other presidents included on the list, thus making the evaluations more relative in nature, rather than absolute.
Survey Methods
Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,009 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Dec. 8-10, 2006. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
3. How do you think each of the following presidents will go down in history -- as an outstanding president, above average, average, below average, or poor? [RANDOM ORDER]
2006 Dec 8-10(sorted by "outstanding/above average")

Outstanding/Above average Average Belowaverage/Poor

Ronald Reagan 64 26 10
Bill Clinton 45 29 25
Jimmy Carter 38 38 22
George H.W. Bush 32 50 18
Gerald Ford 23 60 12
George W. Bush 19 27 54
FULL TRENDS:
A. The current president, George W. Bush

Reagan passed away on June 5, 2006. Interviewing from June 3-4 showed 12%giving him an outstanding rating, 41% above average, 33% average, 8% belowaverage, and 5% poor.
Less than 0.5%

Commentray By Herb Krantz

As you can see by the artical above that it doesn't take a brain surgeon to see what I have been saying for along time about our president,he is a complete moron. Even most of the jerks that voted for him regret it now.
I can't see how a man who couldn't run a business or speak english be the leader of the greatest country of the free world, but I guess that's what makes our country great.
We all know that he won because of one issue and that he and his backers stood for. They didn't care if the rest of the country disagreed. Let us all remember how they went after the people that disagreed with them and next time look at all the issues infront of us that are important.
This man has put the lives of everyone in this world not just Americans in jeopardy. He gave the terrorist a reason to call to arms all moslums to stand up and fight. And they all beleave it.
If they don't the USA will take over their countries and inslave them.
It will come out in years to come that there was no reason to go to Iraq, but we will still be fighting the war bush started.